Saturday, January 29, 2011

This week focus is to learn from Sir John Templeton

I will add 10-15 links of various interviews of John Templeton. It is good advice to read and get insights from these interviews. It is incredible based on this inteview, John Templeton was able to see mortgage crisis way before. Some quotes I like

- To be successful you need to keep changing your ideas and some times more than once a year.  You should still have the same frame work but ideas need to be changed. This is the same lesson once peter cundill said about he was not flexible enough. Personally I was doing lot of net nets from last two years but I need to move on because net nets do really well when economy is in recovery mode
- "I have observed in 92 years that the people who are most diligent in working do live many years longer than those who are lazy," Sir John says.

- Do the Opposite of the Crowd: My job was being paid by wealthy families to help them choose stocks and bonds. And my results were much better when I was working from here than from Manhattan, Radio City and Rockefeller Center. I had good results in New York. But when I came here, I had better results. The secret, I think, is that in order to buy stocks at a bargain price, you have to do the opposite of the crowd. When you're going to the same meetings with the other people in Manhattan, it's hard to be different.

- Templeton does not base on his investment choices based on country growth prospects. His decisions to allocate money are dependent on where he can find the lowest valuations. He thinks there are many opportunities in the United States.

- At 84, he says one need to be industrious, he is more busier, enthusiatic, happier, joyful than ever in his life. Post world war II, most of the investment ideas are in Japan. Japan was 1/10 of the price of similar businesses. One of the basic principles to buy where ever it is cheaper and this is only when one is selling. People were selling in Japan after world war.

- Couple of days when hitler invaded poland. There were 104 companies that went below 1 dollar a share.  John templeton asked to buy everything that is selling for less than a dollar and 37 of them are in Bankruptcy. He says those are the best of all. One outstanding once was missouri pacific railway, it gotten down to 12 cents a share. Railroads come back in war. He got 40 times what he paid for.

- 1/3 of the time all my investments are wrong. So please do not worry you can still make around 13% in the long run

- Benjamin Franklin is one person who has influenced him the most

- When there are no bargains, the key investment strategy in this environment is to go long on 10 well managed solid stocks and short on 10 that are in similar industries that do not posses the qualities of favorite
10.
- If we are increasingly humble about how little we know, we may be more eager to search

- Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria

- The four most expensive words in the English language are "this time it's different"

- Investments are different, if you go to 10 doctors they prescribe the same medicine, if you go to 10 engineers, they prescribe to build in similar way and if you go to 10 investment specialits and if they all prescribe the same stock, you need to stay away from it

- Stock price fluctuations are proportional to the square root of the price.  When your method becomes popular, switch to an unpopular method. Stay flexible. No asset or method is forever. In the long run, stock index prices fluctuate around the EPS trend line

- Templeton's tip for bond investors: Focus on countries that have both trade and budget surpluses. Russia and Canada fit the bill.


- In 2003 "Every previous major bear market has been accompanied by a bear market in home prices. ... This time, home prices have gone up 20%, and this represents a very dangerous situation. When home prices do start down, they will fall remarkably far. In Japan, home prices are down to less than half what they were at the stock market peak." Sir John adds, "A home-price decline of as little as 20% would put a lot of people in bankruptcy.


http://www.sirjohntempleton.org/articles_details.asp?a=9

http://www.lanczglobal.com/SirJohnInterview.htm
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/5555
http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/Sir-John-Templeton-interview.html
http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/abacus-Sir-John-Templeton-interview.html
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=82503
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjINZszzYDs
http://www.sirjohntempleton.org/articles_details.asp?a=14

1 comment:

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