Finding 10 baggers in India

I sometimes write my articles toooo.

Finding a 10 bagger per peter lynch is always a difficult proposition. When peter lynch says finding a 10 bagger, he meant about the stock price.

Here when I say a 10 bagger, I am talking about sales and profits increasing 10 times in 10 years. This will force me to think more about the business than the price of the stocks. Obviously finding a business where I do not need to a premium for that. As per Graham, If I am concentrating on business sales/profits, the stock price will take care of it.

As Per Charlie, I need to reverse my logic – Rather than finding characteristics of successful company, I need to start thinking about how companies get extinct.

As I know how companies become extinct and their typical characteristics. I need to find companies which do not have these characteristics. Obviously some of these characteristics are interlinked. I am trying to find a check list for this.

1. Excess leverage
2. Having no moat
3. Depends on a few customers
4. Unable to rise prices if there is an inflation
5. Return on capital is too low
6. Having lower margins
7. Cannot be a commodity company as we cannot forecast the price of commodities.
8. Excess Competition or Competition from China / other developing countries
9. Technology Obsolescence
10. Govt. Interference / Sanctions
11. Price Caps from govt.
12. Potential Future Liabilities like pharma/cigarettes/environment
13. Cannot be a serial acquisition
14. Bad Management / Excess Compensation / Greed
15. Depends on only a few key individuals / suppliers


This will automatically eliminate 90% of the companies in my universe list because of my circle of competence. Finally I also have a test for essentiality. The reason I use this test is if something drastic happens in economy, people need to still use these products/services. It should not be luxury products/services as people may not buy these things are bad.

Well this will eliminate banks, investment banking companies, commodity companies, technology companies, IT Outsourcing companies and a lot of manufacturing companies. One sector where it is relatively easy to find this is FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods).

Here is list of companies in FMCG sector with min 100 crores market cap. In my next article I will discuss about a few select companies from this list how they fit into this check list

Indian Stocks Benjamin Graham Cigar butts - Top 10

Here are top 10 cigar butts based EV/EBIDTA with atleast 100 crores mkt cap.

Excellent Analysis by Charu on Page Industries - Jockey Brand

Just jaw-key-ing. There, that’s how you’d say it. An expression of comfort that reflects your change of urge to be crazy, uninhibited, carefree, un-posey, cheeky even. We’re all for it. Go ahead, easier said than done.


A “BRIEF” ABOUT THE COMPANY

Just jockeying ;) Sounds and feels familiar na? Well yes, I’m talking about one of India’s very popular brand for Innerwear/Leisurewear for Men and Women. The company behind getting the world renowned brand “JOCKEY®” to India, Page Industries Ltd. was set up in 1994 by Genomal family.


The family had then been associated with JOCKEY International Inc. for 44 years as their sole licensee in the Philippines. Page Industries became a public company in March 2007 and is quoted in the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India.

Page Industries Ltd., located in Bangalore, India are the exclusive licensees of JOCKEY International Inc. (USA) for manufacture and distribution of the JOCKEY® brand Innerwear/Leisurewear for Men and Women in India, Sri Lanka, Republic of Maldives, Bangladesh and Nepal. Recently the contract has been extended for the next 20 years, i.e. till 2030.

Read the rest using the link below

http://gcharu.blogspot.com/2009/09/just-jockeying-page-industries-ltd.html?showComment=1256885784931#c1894014989061080232

Listen to Charlie Munger on BBC & Random Thoughts

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8326369.stm


Random Thoughts

- Airlines and Retailing are tough business whether we like it or not. If you look at the history of Warren Buffet, he quickly figured out that Hochschild Kohn is tough business and even investing in airlines does not make sense. Even in India, a lot of investors are going to get burnt due to investing in Retail business and Airlines. It especially bothers me by reading below headlines. This is classic wealth transfer. I hope Mallya realizes there is a lot of structural differences in business economics in Kinfisher beer vs Kinfisher airlines.

"Kingfisher Airlines 2009-2010 Q2 Registers Loss

Last Updated: 2009-10-28T15:24:20+05:30

Private carrier Kingfisher Airlines has registered a net loss of Rs.419 crore for the second quarter of the 2009-10 fiscal which ended Sep 30 against the net loss of Rs.483 crore registered during corresponding period last fiscal.


"

Must Read

A lot of people do not know about Mr. Sanjay Bakshi. He is an awesome professor who is from Graham and Doddsville. His class teachings are on the website. It is must read for everyone. I have learned a lot from his teachings.

Here is the website. Please read his term 5 lectures.
FYI - I am not a relative of him.

http://www.sanjaybakshi.net/Sanjay_Bakshi/BFBV.html

Good Indian Stock Screener

My top 3 indian stock screens are
1. http://www.edelweiss.in/tools/screener.aspx
2. http://www.equitymaster.com/research-it/company-info/search/internal.asp
3. http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/index.php

Please go to the bottom of the screen

Hawkins cooker - Like this idea

Even though I think it is a little expensive. Long term this stock looks good. Please read the article

Hawkins Cooker Limited (HAWKINCOOK) is India’s second largest company engaged in pressure cookers and cookwares. The produces a wide range of other house hold and commercial cooking utensils. Its brands include Hawkins, Futura, and Miss Mary.
The key aspects that I like about Hawkins is sells in domestic markets (does not depend upon what happens internationally), low debt, and focus of controlled growth. It is well positioned to cash on growth in disposable income from growing Indian middle class.
Trend Analysis
The whole reason for any business to exist is to generate sales revenue and make more profits. At a minimum, the parameters listed below should have continuously increasing trends. All the data below is based on last 8 years i.e. from 2000 to 2008.
Revenue: Increasing trend since 2003 with average growth of 9% (SDev. 13%). Neutral observation.
Earnings per share: Increasing trend with average growth of 54% (SDev. 163%). This shows it possibility of negative growth. Neutral observation.
Net cash flow from operations: Overall, an increasing trend. The net cash flow is more or less greater than reported net profit. Need to keep an eye on the trend because in 2009 reported profit was more than cash generated. Neutral observation.
Profit/Loss from operations: Consistently increasing trends in profits from its operations since 2003. Very good observation.
Reported net profit: Overall an increasing trend since 2003. Very good observation.
Gross margins: Current GM of 11.22% is higher than historical average of 5.7% (stdev. 2.85%). Very good observation.
Operating margins: Current OM of 11.9% is higher than historical average of 7.3% (stdev. 2.24%). Very good observation.

http://www.tipblog.in/analysis/hawkins-cooker-stock-for-long-term-investment/#more-1365

Stock Idea : Sulzer

Analysis - Sulzer India

About
Sulzer india is a 200 Cr company in the business of mass transfer technology (mixers, separation column etc) for industries such as refineries, chemicals, gas processing etc. The company is a subsidiary of Sulzer chemtech AG. The parent also has a fully owned subsidiary – sulzer pumps.
Sulzer india has received technology support from its parent, which holds 80% of the equity in the company

Financials
The company has maintained an ROE in excess of 25%, with the number increasing to around 40%+ in the last 2 years. The company’s total asset base is almost same as the cash balance, so net of cash the invested capital is a very low amount. In addition the company also has a source of additional capital – customer advance which reduce the net capital requirement in the business.
The sales have tripled and net profits gone up by more than four times in the last 4years. The company is debt free and now operates with negative working capital

See Rohit's blog:
http://valueinvestorindia.blogspot.com/2009/10/analysis-sulzer-india.html

Gwalior Chemicals - Interesting opportunity

Investing values blog has an written an interesting opportunity about Gwalior Chemicals.
Gwalior Chemicals announced on the 8th of June that it was selling its chemical business to Lanxess. The total enterprise value of the deal is Rs 536 crores with Lanxess taking over debt of Rs 156 crores. The equity value accruing to the company would be Rs 380 crores. The company would be still left with a plant at Ankhleshwar.The management has gone on record saying that they intend to return 100 crores out of Rs 380 crores to the shareholders either thru a one time dividend or share buyback.The current equity capital of the company is Rs 24.67 crores.So we are saying that the shareholder will accrue a sale value of Rs 154 per share out of which the company intends to return approximately Rs 40 per share either in the form of dividend or share buyback.

http://investingvalues.blogspot.com/2009/06/gwalior-chemicals-special-situation.html
http://investingvalues.blogspot.com/